TRACKING HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT & FORMATION
ON THE INTERNET IS FUN AND GAMES & A LIFE / HOME
SAVING GAME WITHIN HURRICANE ALLEY----TUTORIAL

PROLOGUE:
Towards the bottom of our index page is a selection that will take you to the Hurricane Hunters' homepages at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi.   These brave Air Force crews regularly fly their 4 engine turboprop aircaft through about to form tropical lows, tropical storms and full blown hurricanes transmitting data through satellites to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

This tutorial is NOT going to duplicate their excellent work, but rather illustrate how one may track incipient tropical lows via the Internet located in the Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico using the superb National Hurricane Centers' tropical outlook Internet pages BEFORE the Hurricane Hunters investigate them.

A typical National Hurricane Center tropical outlook page is illustrated below:

It may be downloaded from the University of Wisconsin at:

http://cimss/ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/wxdisc12txt

An expanded illustration of the storm mentioned above is displayed below. It shows it in the Gulf of Mexico with Florida north of it, Cuba east of it, and Mexico southwest of it. It is a monster storm, but not yet a Tropical Low, Tropical Depression or a Hurricane



A National Hurricane Center tropical outlook six hours later update page compared to the one above is illustrated below:



Another National Hurricane Center tropical outlook six hours later update page compared to the one above is illustrated below:



















OK, we have tracked these Gulf of Mexico huge low pressure areas for 48 hours WITHOUT them meeting the criteria for a "Tropical Low Pressure" classification. This simple tutorial should at least have given you a few ideas as to how to track incipient / potential Tropical Lows and Hurricanes.

There was NO National Hurricane Center "Tropical Outlook" sent at 5:30 am, Monday, October 4, 1999, so we will conclude after 48 hours of observation.

Good luck, Bob

FAVORITE WEATHER LINKS BELOW - SELECT 3 CHOICES

US Air Force Hurricane Hunters Squadron, Keesler AFB, Mississippi
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/usamap.html
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html

A FEW CONCLUSIONS:

BEST:     Internet weather maps/information: www.intellicast.com
Perfect 6 hour loops always reliable + pertinent info

WORST: Internet weather maps/information: www.weather.com
Random ~3 hour loops often disabled + some junk info


WEATHER FORECASTS ARE A LAUGHABLE NON-SCIENTIFIC KLUUGE:

Last year a top National Hurricane Center meteorologist told me that they were delighted when their 24 and 48 hour location forecasts for tropical storms or hurricances fell within a plus or minus one HUNDRED mile radius......even when using the world's most advanced Cray super computers. This is due to the near infinite number of variables that must be taken into consideration.

WEATHER STATISTICS ARE A LAUGHABLE NON-SCIENTIFIC KLUUGE:

The same as above holds TRUE for weather statistics unless stupid broad generalizations are used. Looking at the last ten years of hurricane activity and stating: "August and September are the preponderant months for Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricanes to hit the U.S.," is such a broad brush statement as to be meaningless even though it may be true.

Maybe ten or twenty years from now the above two paragraphs may be WRONG when SUPER, super duper computers have been developed. Let us hope so. Till then, we should take weather forecasts and weather statistics with a grain of salt and skepticism.

ADDENDA:

Late in the day of October 4, 1999 the National Hurricane Center named this low pressure area, "Tropical Depression Eleven."

On October 5, 1999, this depression remained stationary in the Bay of Campeche about 110 miles east of Vera Cruz, Mexico with maximum winds of 35 miles per hour. Quien sabe Lone Ranger, (who knows), whether or not it will move inland and die or just peter out where it is now or move elsewhere?

October 6, 1999, afternoon, Tropical Depression Eleven "disippated" (petered out), into a broad low pressure area the National Hurricane Center announced.